Academy Award Predictions

The Academy Awards are right around the corner, so it's that time again for Mark and I to make some predictions, and this time, it's for all the marbles. Let's see if our predictions are any better than the Golden Globes.

The Academy Awards will be held on Sunday February 27th at 7pm CST on ABC.

Josh's Predictions
Mark's Predictions
Agreed Upon Predictions 




Best Motion Picture of the Year:

Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
127 Hours
Toy Story 3
True Grit 
Winter's Bone

Josh- The Social Network will walk away with this one. The only other real contender is The King's Speech.

Mark- I just have to go with The King's Speech again. Although it lost the race for the Golden Globe, it did win the British Independent Film Award for Best Picture. It was tied with Inception and The Social Network for my favorite film of the season, but I think after noticing a continuity error within the first few minutes of Inception, plus the classic Historical Drama win from the Oscars, The King's Speech comes away this time.


Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role:

Annette Bening – The Kids are All Right
Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence – Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman – Black Swan
Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine

Josh- Portman should have this one in the bag. There is an outside chance that Bening could steal this one, but I doubt it.

Mark-  Easy win for Natalie Portman, assuming the rest of the crap she's been in lately doesn't hold her back. I think Kidman and Williams have a shot, and as much as I'd like to see Jennifer Lawrence for an extended amount of time, Portman has this in the bag. Not to quote Josh or anything.


Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role:
 
Javier Bardem – Biutiful
Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network
Colin Firth – The King's Speech
James Franco – 127 Hours
Jeff Bridges – True Grit

Josh- I know I picked Eisenberg to win the Golden Globe in this category, but I am changing my tune for the Oscars. Firth got snubbed last year, this is his year. 

Mark- Still Colin Firth. He showed me he has what it takes to come away with a victory. Javier Bardem is still awesome, and Bridges is always a frontrunner, but neither of them really blew anybody away. Figuratively. 


Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role:


Christian Bale – The Fighter
John Hawkes – Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner – The Town
Mark Ruffalo – The Kids are All Right
Geoffrey Rush – The King's Speech

Josh- The one guy that looked like Jesus at the Golden Globes will win this one.


Mark- I've always been a fan of Christian Bale, ever since seeing The Machinist. I love his enthusiasm for acting, and how he hates the spotlight to that people can focus on his characters instead of him when he's on screen. Rush was commanding in The King's Speech, but Bale deserves the win.
 


Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role:
 
Amy Adams – The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter – The King's Speech
Melissa Leo – The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit
Jacki Weaver – Animal Kingdom

Josh- I'm glad to see that Hailee Steinfeld made the short list, in my opinion she deserves to win this category. Her major competition will be Melissa Leo, who won (and I predicted to win) the Golden Globe in this category. 

Mark- I must agree, Hailee Steinfeld is one hell of a young actress. I was so happy that the Coen brothers know how to cast (who am I kidding, they already know). However, Melissa Leo's experience obviously shows her dominance this year.


Achievement in Directing:

Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan
David O. Russell – The Fighter
Tom Hooper – The King's Speech
David Fincher – The Social Network
Joel and Ethan Coen – True Grit 

Josh- What the f@#k... why did Nolan get snubbed in this category? His name deserves to be on this list. I am rather upset about this category.

Mark- I've gotta agree with Josh, Nolan knows his stuff, but as usual, he falls short in terms of continuity through out his films. I notice a half a dozen errors the first time I've watched all of his movies. David Fincher really knew where he wanted to go with this film. He stylized it to fit his dark desires better than anyone else.


Achievement in Cinematography:

Black Swan – Matthew Libatique
Inception – Wally Pfister
The King's Speech – Danny Cohen
The Social Network – Jeff Cronenweth
True Grit – Roger Deakins 

Josh- Okay, here is where things start to get really difficult. In my mind this one is a toss-up between Deakins, Cronenweth, and Pfister. I am going to go with Deakins to win. Cronenweth is a close second, that tilt-shift scene was awesome... 

Mark- I can't believe anyone else would not choose Pfister on this puppy. The amount of planning and thought that had to go into so many shots in Inception was definitely apparent. Think about lighting the rotating hallway scene. And swooping a camera in and out through there. I would give Libatique second place on this guy, the million shots involving mirrors in Black Swan completely rocked my world. But still, Pfister is anti-3D. So there you go.


Best Documentary Feature:

Exit Through the Gift Shop
Gasland
Inside Job
Restrepo 
Waste Land

Josh- I had so much fun watching Exit Through the Gift Shop, it was an awesome film. I have a sinking feeling though that Restrepo may win, hopefully I am wrong about that. I am also curious to see if Banksy will show up...  

Mark- I think we're due for a Documentary about the war. A good one. I think the patience of the world is about giving up, and everyone wanted to see what it is like in Afghanistan for themselves. Restrepo has the Oscar.


Original Screenplay:

Another Year – Mike Leigh
The Fighter – Paul Attanasio, Lewis Colich, Eric Johnson, Scott Silverand Paul Tamasy
Inception – Christopher Nolan
The Kids are All Right – Stuart Blumberg and Lisa Cholodenko
The King's Speech – David Seidler

Josh- The King's Speech should have this category locked down. That said, I really want Nolan to win something major for Inception. 

Mark-  This is a damn tough one. I think both The King's Speech and The Kids are All Right are in the front running, but after reading through the Inception screenplay, as well as looking at the maps Nolan drew for how the film's awkward timeline would work out, he finally has the Oscar he's been waiting for.


Adapted Screenplay:
 
127 Hours – Simon Beaufoy and Danny Boyle
The Social Network – Aaron Sorkin
Toy Story 3 – Michael Arndt & John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich
True Grit – Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
Winter's Bone – Debra Granik and Anne Rossellini

Josh- Sorkin should win in this category, his only major competition will be the Coen Brothers. 

Mark-  Easy peasy. The dialogue in The Social Network was fantastic, the pace kept moving, and although it may or may not have been totally accurate, it did make for one great story. Then again, so did 127 Hours...





Best Animated Feature Film of the Year:
 
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

Josh- No contest

Mark- Duh.


Best Documentary Short Subject:
 
Killing in the Name
Poster Girl
Strangers No More
Sun Come Up 
The Warriors of Qiugang

Josh- I have no clue, this prediction is a shot in the dark. Sun Come Up sounds like a good name, I'll go with that.

Mark- I just like Rage Against the Machine that much. I'm kidding. I'm genuinely interested in seeing this film, I want to see how a Suicide Bomber directly affected this man's life.


Best Short Film (Animated):
 
Day & Night – Teddy Newton
The Gruffalo – Jakob Schuh and Max Lang
Let's Pollute – Geefwee Boedoe
The Lost Thing – Shaun Tan and Andrew Ruhemann
Madagascar, carnet de voyage – Bastien Dubois

Josh- Another category in which I have no clue who will win. There is a lot of buzz around Day & Night, I will go with that to win.

Mark- I didn't think that Day & Night was any good compared to previous Pixar shorts, I'm going to have to give this to Let's Pollute for the fact that this climate change thing is so popular.


Best Short Film (Live Action):
 
The Confession – Tanel Toom
The Crush – Michael Creagh
God of Love – Luke Matheny
Na Wewe – Ivan Goldschmidt
Wish 143 – Ian Barnes and Samantha Waite

Josh- Why, I don't know... why not.

Mark- The Crush brings me back to having crushes. I just hope the film isn't about a rock crushing some guys arm and him getting stuck there. Man, would I sound like an ass.




Achievement in Art Direction:
 
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Inception
The King's Speech
True Grit



Josh- I always have trouble guessing this category. I think this category is a toss-up between The King's Speech, Alice in Wonderland and Inception. I am putting my money behind The King's Speech.

Mark- I have trouble in this one too. I would guess that Alice in Wonderland has the best shot in this department, but I'm going with the (not so) Wild Card, True Grit. 



Achievement in Costume Design:
 
Alice in Wonderland – Colleen Atwood
I Am Love – Antonella Cannarozzi
The King's Speech – Jenny Beaven
The Tempest – Sandy Powell
True Grit – Mary Zophres 

Josh- I feel like period films win this more often than not. I'm going with The King's Speech.
  
Mark- The costumes from The Tempest looked convincing. Although I'm sure that they were what they were going for, I think they've got the Oscar anyways.




 Achievement in Makeup:
 
Barney's Version
The Way Back
The Wolfman 

Josh- The Wolfman should be an easy winner.

Mark-  I was going to chose The Wolfman, but for the sake of suspense and argument, I'm doing with the dark horse, Barney's Version.


Achievement in Film Editing: 
 
Black Swan – Andrew Weisblum
The Fighter – Pamela Martin
The King's Speech – Tariq Anwar
127 Hours – Jon Harris
The Social Network – Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall 
 
Josh- I'm thinking The Social Network will win.

Mark- Screw them for not putting Inception on here. Can you imagine editing the most confusing, time altering, multi-layered plot of the 21st century? Me neither. Shot in the dark... Black Swan.


Best Foreign Language Film of the Year:

Biutiful – Mexico
Dogtooth – Greece
In a Better World – Denmark
Incendies – Canada
Hors la Loi – Algeria

Josh- While I still think Biutiful has a strong chance of winning, I think In a Better World will win.


Mark- Bardem stole this category. I can't even imagine living in a world where Biutiful doesn't win.


Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score):
 
How to Train Your Dragon – John Powell
Inception – Hans Zimmer
The King's Speech – Alexandre Desplat
127 Hours – A.R. Rahman
The Social Network – Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross

Josh- This category will be a showdown between Reznor/Ross and Zimmer. I would like to see Zimmer to win, that's not to say that I would be disappointed if Reznor/Ross won.

Mark- Watch this clip and tell me Zimmer doesn't know what he's doing. I thought that The Social Network had an absolutely fantastic score, however, I think that Hans Zimmer puts so much more heart and thought into his work that Inception comes away with the win.


Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song):
 
"Coming Home" from Country Strong by Tom Douglas, Troy Verges and Hillary Lindsey
"I See the Light" from Tangled by Alan Menken Lyric by Glenn Slater
"If I Rise" from 127 Hours by A.R. Rahman & Dido and Rollo Armstrong
"We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3 by Randy Newman

Josh-  Another showdown in this category, this time between A.R. Rahman and Newman. I'm going with A.R. Rahman.

Mark- I'm just imagining myself doing my Randy Newman impression, and I think I deserve the win. So he must deserve it more than me. Toy Story 3.


Achievement in Sound Editing:

Inception
Toy Story 3
TRON: Legacy
True Grit
Unstoppable

Josh- Inception has to win for something right?

Mark- BWOOOOOOOOM


Achievement in Sound Mixing:
 
Inception
The King's Speech
Salt
The Social Network
True Grit

Josh- Another win for Inception.

Mark- BWOOOOOOOOM


Achievement in Visual Effects: 
 
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
Hereafter
Inception 
Iron Man 2

Josh- I may become physically ill if Inception doesn't win in this category.

Mark- Iron Man 2. Ha! I forgot they even released that movie to the public. Harry Potter didn't have too much going for it, and Hereafter, come on. Alice in Wonderland has a shot, the whole damn thing was CG. However, Nolan tries not to use CG, which I really respect. His realistic approach to creating mind bending action sequences and paradoxes gives Inception the win in this category.






Have any different views on who might come away with the Oscar? Feel free to post your own predictions in our comments. Come February 27th, we'll see who comes out on top!